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Message: [QUOTE="Queen, post: 87646, member: 27"] Middle Eastern military escalation is threatening to torpedo South Africa's fragile economic recovery through surging oil prices and stalled rate cuts. Dr. Nzimande's economic warning [LIST] [*]University of Johannesburg economist Dr Ntokozo Nzimande flagged fuel, food, and borrowing costs all spiking. [*]Nzimande says inflation could blow past the target range entirely. [*]South Africa's Reserve Bank may freeze or reverse its rate-cutting campaign. [*]Repo rate currently sits at 6.75%, with prime lending at 10.25%. [/LIST] The Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint [LIST] [*]Around 20% of global oil trade flows through that narrow waterway. [*]South Africa imports roughly 80% of its crude from the Middle East. [*]Brent crude already jumped 8 to 13%, landing near 80 to 82 USD a barrel. [*]Even a brief disruption would keep prices elevated for months. [/LIST] Food and transport costs face compounding pressure [LIST] [*]Diesel hikes slam freight companies, and those costs get passed to shoppers. [*]Gulf-region natural gas instability could spike global fertiliser prices. [*]Bread, milk, meat, and vegetables all travel by road or rail. [*]Households already stretched thin would absorb another painful round of increases. [/LIST] Tourism and air travel caught in the crossfire [LIST] [*]Middle Eastern airspace closures are disrupting international flight routes badly. [*]Tourism contributes about 7% to South Africa's GDP. [*]Longer, pricier routes would hammer an industry employing young and unskilled workers. [*]Nzimande compared the disruption scale to post-9/11 and COVID-era lockdowns. [/LIST] [/QUOTE]

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