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Message: [QUOTE="Queen, post: 85013, member: 27"] Zimbabwe is done flirting with currency chaos and is slow-walking a one-currency future, betting stability beats speed every single time. What the central bank is pushing [LIST] [*]The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe is doubling down on a single-currency goal for domestic transactions. [*]The message is clear: this is staged, deliberate, and absolutely not a flip-the-switch moment. [*]The 2025 results are being used as proof that this path is not reckless. [/LIST] Who delivered the message [LIST] [*]Innocent Matshe spoke in Harare on behalf of John Mushayavanhu. [*]The remarks landed at the State of the Economy and 2026 Economic Outlook breakfast meeting. [*]The event was organized by Africa Economic Development Strategies, working with Business Times. [/LIST] Why a local currency is non-negotiable [LIST] [*]Matshe framed a domestic currency as mandatory for competitiveness, not patriotic nostalgia. [*]The ZiG is being treated as infrastructure, not a branding exercise. [*]Mono-currency happens when conditions allow, not when calendars demand. [/LIST] Why ZiG is being taken seriously [LIST] [*]ZiG launched on April 5, 2024, backed by gold and foreign currency reserves. [*]Tight fiscal behavior and stricter monetary control helped it absorb shocks. [*]Inflation cooled, and exchange rate volatility stopped screaming. [/LIST] Where the exchange rate stands [LIST] [*]ZiG strengthened by about 1.5 percent against the US dollar this year. [*]The rate moved to roughly ZiG25.59 from ZiG25.98 per dollar. [*]The interbank market has been hovering around ZiG26. [/LIST] The conditions that must be met [LIST] [*]Inflation needs to stay low and predictable. [*]Foreign reserves must reach at least 3.6 months of import cover. [*]A sustained trade surplus is part of the checklist. [/LIST] Trade is finally flipping positive [LIST] [*]Zimbabwe is exporting more than it imports. [*]Foreign currency inflows jumped hard in 2025. [*]Gold prices did most of the heavy lifting. [/LIST] What policy tools are lining up [LIST] [*]RBZ wants one exchange rate, not a patchwork. [*]Taxes and public services are being nudged into local-currency payments. [*]Treasury and RBZ are running a back-to-basics coordination play. [/LIST] Borrowing rules tightening [LIST] [*]Government borrowing is limited to projects that immediately generate revenue. [*]No revenue stream, no borrowing. [*]This is meant to stop old habits from sneaking back. [/LIST] Physical cash update [LIST] [*]New ZiG banknotes are scheduled for release around late Q1 or early Q2. [*]Durability and security are the selling points. [*]Cash is still part of the plan, not an afterthought. [/LIST] Why the multi-currency door stays open [LIST] [*]Zimbabwe legalized mixed-currency use through December 31, 2030. [*]The earlier 2025 cutoff scared lenders. [*]Extending the window calmed long-term US dollar lending. [/LIST] Inflation metrics telling a story [LIST] [*]Annual ZiG inflation dropped to about 15 percent early last year. [*]Monthly inflation has averaged roughly 0.4 percent since February 2025. [*]Single-digit annual inflation is within reach. [/LIST] Regional benchmark watch [LIST] [*]The January inflation data is expected next week. [*]Matshe hinted it could land inside the SADC 3 to 7 percent range. [*]That would be a symbolic milestone. [/LIST] Foreign currency inflows surging [LIST] [*]Receipts hit US$16.2 billion in 2025. [*]That is up from US$13.3 billion the year before. [*]Again, gold exports are the star. [/LIST] Central bank behavior shift [LIST] [*]RBZ reported zero financing of government spending. [*]Coordination with the Ministry of Finance made that possible. [*]This is a rare flex in Zimbabwe’s recent history. [/LIST] Reserve position snapshot [LIST] [*]Foreign reserves climbed to US$1.2 billion by December 2025. [*]That equals about 1.5 months of import cover. [*]Reserves outweigh local money stock by a wide margin. [/LIST] Money supply discipline [LIST] [*]Local currency money growth fell from 10 percent to about 2 percent in 2025. [*]The central bank is signaling no appetite for loosening. [*]Low inflation is being guarded aggressively. [/LIST] Growth outlook check [LIST] [*]Zimbabwe is expected to post around 6.6 percent growth for 2025. [*]The 2026 forecast sits at a cautious 5 percent. [*]Matshe suggested upside risk if data revisions hit. [/LIST] Independent economists take [LIST] [*]Gift Mugano says the exchange rate panic has faded since September 2024. [*]Parallel market premiums are staying under 20 percent. [*]People are no longer sprinting to dump ZiG daily. [/LIST] Risks still lurking [LIST] [*]Mugano flagged fiscal slippage as the main danger. [*]Budget discipline and zero tolerance for quasi-fiscal moves were labeled mandatory. [*]Interest rates should stay tight through 2026. [/LIST] External shocks on the radar [LIST] [*]Oil price spikes tied to geopolitics in the Americas were flagged. [*]Climate risks like flooding could disrupt gains. [*]Stability planning is being framed as defensive, not reactive. [/LIST] What could boost lending [LIST] [*]Lower reserve requirements for banks lending to agriculture, manufacturing, and SMEs were floated. [*]Growth needs to come from productivity, not demand suppression. [*]The aim is stability that people actually feel. [/LIST] Treasury’s current stance [LIST] [*]Government spending is being squeezed. [*]Luxury vehicles, foreign travel, and quasi-fiscal activity are being cut back. [*]The idea is boring discipline over dramatic fixes. [/LIST] [/QUOTE]

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