Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="Queen, post: 85059, member: 27"] Samsung’s 2nm story looks way better than its 3nm mess, but one cautious analyst just poured cold water on the hype, and now everyone’s side-eyeing the yield numbers. Why Samsung’s 2nm even matters [LIST] [*]Samsung badly needed a win after 3nm GAA stumbled [*]3nm yields around 30 percent of fabless customers away [*]Those customers sprinted straight to TSMC instead [*]2nm GAA is Samsung’s shot at credibility [/LIST] The Exynos chip that changed the tone [LIST] [*]The Exynos 2600 is Samsung’s first 2nm GAA chipset [*]This chip alone reshaped how people view Samsung Foundry [*]It signals that 2nm is not just lab vapor [*]Samsung suddenly looks competitive again [/LIST] KeyBank hits the brakes [LIST] [*]KeyBank released a conservative take [*]Their estimate puts 2nm GAA yields below 40 percent [*]That clashes hard with earlier industry optimism [*]Profitability targets for 2027 start looking shaky under that lens [/LIST] Why does that estimate feel off [LIST] [*]Earlier reports pegged 2nm yields closer to 50 percent [*]Samsung is already pushing its second-gen process, SF2P [*]Basic design for SF2P was reportedly completed [*]That does not scream sub-40 percent panic [/LIST] Real products are already circling [LIST] [*]Exynos 2600 is being explored for foldables [*]One rumored target is the Galaxy Z Flip 8 [*]Companies usually do not gamble flagship devices on weak nodes [*]That alone raises eyebrows at the pessimism [/LIST] The U.S. fabs are leveling up [LIST] [*]Samsung’s Taylor plant in the United States was meant for 4nm [*]Plans have shifted to full 2nm wafer production [*]ASML EUV test runs are expected in March [*]This is real infrastructure money, not placeholder spending [/LIST] Why customers still care about Samsung [LIST] [*]TSMC supply is completely choked [*]Demand is so wild that customers are paying up to double [*]Samsung looks like a pressure valve for the industry [*]Even imperfect yields beat no capacity at all [/LIST] The Tesla-sized elephant [LIST] [*]Samsung reportedly landed a multi-billion-dollar deal with Tesla [*]That kind of partnership does not happen on shaky yields [*]No one signs checks that big without proof [*]This alone makes sub-40 percent sound suspicious [/LIST] The numbers that refuse to move [LIST] [*]Exynos 2600 mass production reports cited 50 percent yields [*]That figure surfaced back in September 2025 [*]As of January 15, it has not changed [*]Either progress is hidden, or estimates are missing context [/LIST] Samsung’s official non-answer [LIST] [*]Samsung was asked directly about the yield rumors [*]The response was blunt [*]The company does not comment on baseless rumors or speculation [*]Translation: outsiders do not see the full picture [/LIST] What this all likely means [LIST] [*]KeyBank’s numbers are estimates, not gospel [*]Samsung clearly has enough confidence to chase big customers [*]2nm GAA is not perfect, but it is miles ahead of 3nm [*]The real yield story probably sits somewhere between hype and fear [/LIST] [/QUOTE]

Name