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Message: [QUOTE="Nehanda, post: 30008, member: 2262"] According to security sources who talked with The NewsHawks, President Mnangagwa might declare a state of emergency before the March 31 protests. These protests come from military-backed war veterans under the leadership of Blessed Geza. They want to kick Mnangagwa out of power. The president faces growing problems inside his ZANU-PF party. Many people dislike his plans to stay beyond his two allowed terms. He also fears Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga might try to overthrow him. Scary things happened before these possible emergency plans. Cars burned in front of businesses owned by Mnangagwa's friends around Harare. People see these acts as warnings about future trouble. The war veterans behind the planned protests say these business people give money for what they call Mnangagwa's 2030 campaign. This campaign tried to break the rules that would make him leave power after his second term. Mnangagwa struggles with Vice-President Chiwenga about who takes over next. Chiwenga, an ex-general, led the action that removed Robert Mugabe back in 2017. He wants to become president himself. Many people in the ZANU-PF party support him, and powerful war veterans back him as well. Mnangagwa recently fired Zimbabwe Army commander Lieutenant-General Anselem Sanyatwe. This move tried to prevent any possible overthrow attempts. Sanyatwe became Sports minister instead—a big step down. People think this shows Mnangagwa does not trust him. The president picked Major-General Emmanuel Matatu from Gokwe, Midlands province, as the new army commander. Matatu turned 72 already, past the age when most retire. His appointment seems like just a short-term choice to keep the military loyal during fears about a possible coup. Police sent forces across Zimbabwe to stop the demonstrations. But the army has stayed mostly quiet, except telling regular people not to wear army clothes. The army usually makes a lot of noise during times like these. This silence makes people wonder whose side they stand on. States of emergency let governments skip normal rules during crisis times. They often bring curfews that limit when people can leave their homes. Zimbabwe has seriously abused human rights in past emergency situations, which raises concerns about what might happen if Mnangagwa declares one this time. Political experts suggest his recent actions aim to strengthen his control. He wants protection against former friends who might turn against him. Mnangagwa removed Sanyatwe as part of a bigger shake-up. He has already fired the police chief and intelligence service head in recent months. Political expert Eldred Masunungure told the Newsday newspaper that Mnangagwa seems to protect himself from possible overthrow attempts. The war veterans planning March 31 protests want to replace him with Chiwenga. These veterans fought for independence years ago. Though fewer in number and older today, they still influence Zimbabwe politics. They maintain strong connections with security leaders from fighting together during liberation. Sanyatwe previously ran the presidential guard under Mugabe. He played a key part in the 2017 coup. He also ordered soldiers who kill six people after election unrest in August 2018. This damaged his reputation. Mnangagwa clearly wants to stay in power after his second term ends in 2028. This created criticism from opposition parties, civil society groups, and even members of his ZANU-PF party. The constitution clearly says that nobody can serve more than two terms. Yet, many suspect Mnangagwa plans to ignore this rule somehow. Deep divisions have formed inside the party. Vice-President Chiwenga opposes these extension plans. He expected to take over based on promises made when they pushed out former president, Mugabe, together in November 2017 through military action. A strong group of war veterans who support Chiwenga has joined those demanding that Mnangagwa leave. Blessed Bombshell Runesu Geza leads this faction, planning an uprising against him on March 31, 2025. Geza served as a Member of Parliament and belonged to the ZANU-PF Central Committee until they kicked him out for causing divisions. This shows how badly split the ruling party has become. Geza went into hiding because he feared punishment for speaking against Mnangagwa. The government cracks down on anyone sharing his messages. They arrested journalist Blessed Mhlanga after he broadcasted Geza's interviews on Heart and Soul TV. Courts denied him bail twice. This raises concerns about press freedom and how little the government tolerates different opinions. Others have disappeared to avoid arrest because they know Geza or support the planned protests. Human rights groups strongly criticized these actions. Idriss Ali Nassah from Human Rights Watch Africa demanded they free Mhlanga immediately. He said this shows that free speech and press rights face serious threats in Zimbabwe. The problems with Mnangagwa started back in August 2024. The ZANU-PF National Congress passed Resolution 1, saying his time as party head and president should continue beyond 2028 until 2030. They wanted to change the constitution for this purpose. This decision angered many people and confirmed suspicions that Mnangagwa wanted to hold power forever. He claims he respects the constitution and will step down in 2028. Few believe him because he never canceled Resolution 1. Leaving office would mean giving up the huge wealth he and his supporters gathered through corruption over the years, which gives him more reason to stay. Corruption is perhaps his enemies' biggest complaint. During a broadcast from his hidden location Wednesday, Geza listed supposed Mnangagwa business friends who became rich from government contracts. This highlights deep anger about corruption and unfair money distribution. How Mnangagwa could legally stay in office remains unclear. The constitution has three protections against third terms. These include rules that nobody serves more than two terms, constitutional changes need approval through national votes, and current presidents cannot benefit from constitutional amendments. The legal barriers against Mnangagwa seeking a third term look significant. Political barriers exist as well. Any required national vote would basically become a vote on Mnangagwa himself. With widespread unhappiness about him, such a vote seems hard to win. One opposition leader thinks Mnangagwa might just try to extend his and current lawmakers' terms. This still requires changing the constitution, but his supporters believe they can pass an amendment without asking citizens to vote on it. Experts find it difficult to judge how serious these rumblings really are. Nobody knows for sure if the March 31 uprising will happen or succeed in removing Mnangagwa. Zimbabwe politics changes quickly and unpredictably. The military removed Mugabe in 2017 under Chiwenga's leadership, which has created much speculation about where military loyalties lie today. Daily Maverick quoted unnamed military sources as saying that Chiwenga commands considerable support in the Zimbabwe Defence Forces. However, Mnangagwa keeps Defence Force Chief General Philip Valerio Sibanda loyal to him, which creates a complex and potentially explosive situation inside the military. Ibbo Mandaza, who directs Zimbabwe Sapes Trust, said he cannot tell if a coup might happen. But all signs show the current system is breaking down. Growing tensions inside the ruling party, military, and security groups suggest that Mnangagwa holds power less firmly each day. Brian Raftopoulos, a Zimbabwe expert at the University of Cape Town, believes real danger exists for major disruption. He says Chiwenga resents Mnangagwa's breaking promises about stepping down by 2028. This creates divisions everywhere, from ZANU-PF to the military and security teams. But Raftopoulos doubts we will see massive street support like in 2017. Economic hardship and political repression under Mnangagwa destroyed public trust in the government, making mass uprisings unlikely. David Moore, a retired professor from the University of Johannesburg, agreed. He would be surprised if many people joined protests. Moore doubts the main opposition party would participate. The Citizens' Coalition for Change has weakened greatly. Joining would signal that they gave up trying to rally citizens directly. Instead, they would ally with ruling party factions and military forces, which might confirm what some observers already think about them. Opposition groups remain divided without unified resistance against Mnangagwa, complicating matters and reducing the chances for a successful uprising. Raftopoulos added that civil society groups lack strength as well. Even with violent protests inside ZANU-PF, Mnangagwa probably maintains control. He pointed to how Mnangagwa moved Lieutenant-General Sanyatwe from army leadership to Sports Minister. People view this as a huge demotion. Mnangagwa keeps moving people he cannot trust. His long-term plan involves containing Chiwenga or pushing him out completely to isolate him. We may see disturbances and unrest, maybe even attempts to remove Mnangagwa from power. But Raftopoulos doubts we will witness a complete coup attempt. [/QUOTE]

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