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Message: [QUOTE="Bombastus, post: 91845, member: 2178"] Sweden’s Green Party is campaigning for a billionaire tax built around a 1 billion SEK wealth threshold and a 2% minimum tax. The Left Party also wants a billionaire tax, but its formal parliamentary position has been less finished, calling for an investigation before the final machinery is set. It matters because the two positions are often bundled into one political demand. The dispute around [B][URL='https://goldmidi.com/community/threads/spotifys-lorentzon-says-hed-leave-sweden-over-the-wealth-tax.77256/']Martin Lorentzon’s wealth-tax warning[/URL][/B] can make the policy sound settled when Sweden is still arguing over what would be taxed, how fortunes would be valued, and how much money the state could realistically collect. [HEADING=2]The Green proposal now has a much clearer shape[/HEADING] The Green Party’s current version is closer to a minimum-tax system than a simple annual charge added to every other tax. Its starting point is wealth above 1 billion SEK, with a target tax burden equal to 2% of the person’s assets. Personal taxes already paid would count toward that floor, so someone already paying at least the required amount would not automatically face another full 2% bill. This distinction is easy to lose in political shorthand. A person with 10 billion SEK in qualifying wealth would not necessarily receive a new 200 million SEK invoice regardless of everything else they had paid. The design instead tries to measure whether existing personal taxation reaches the minimum level, then collect the gap. The proposal borrows heavily from the minimum-tax approach associated with economist Gabriel Zucman. It is meant to target extremely large fortunes rather than recreate Sweden’s old broad wealth tax for a much wider slice of households. Even so, the Swedish version still needs detailed rules covering asset valuation, ownership structures, debt, residency, and the treatment of private companies. Those details are not decorative. Shares in a listed company have a visible market price, while a founder’s stake in an unlisted company can be difficult to value without assumptions. Property, holding companies, cross-border ownership and assets with thin markets create the same problem, especially when a tax calculation has to be repeated every year. [HEADING=2]The Left Party still lacks a finished tax design[/HEADING] The Left Party has made a billionaire tax a prominent election demand, yet its parliamentary material has chiefly called for an investigation into a special tax on the ultra-rich. No equivalent final statutory design is sitting behind the campaign slogan. Party leaders have pushed for rapid action, but basic questions about who would pay and how wealth would be measured remain open. Sweden has not maintained a comprehensive wealth register since the old wealth tax disappeared in 2007. So even before politicians fight over rates, lawmakers face a data problem. They need a defensible way to identify taxable fortunes and value assets consistently enough for appeals, enforcement and annual assessments. Recent [B][URL='https://www.nber.org/papers/w35534']research on personal holding companies[/URL][/B] adds another complication. Using two decades of Swedish and Norwegian administrative data, the researchers found that holding companies shield around half of dividend distributions from individual income taxation. For the highest-income groups, only about 15% to 20% of retained profits were paid out over two decades. A tax aimed at economic wealth rather than realized personal income is partly designed to reach fortunes held inside structures like these. Doing so also makes valuation and enforcement harder. The difference matters because a tax can look simple at the threshold and rate level while becoming far more complicated once ownership structures enter the calculation. [HEADING=2]The 50 billion SEK figure is not a settled forecast[/HEADING] Both parties have pointed to estimates suggesting a billionaire tax could raise more than 50 billion SEK a year. Treating that number as expected cash would be a mistake. Sweden lacks a current official wealth register, so the number of people above a chosen threshold, the taxable value of their assets and the behavioral response all carry uncertainty. A static estimate can fall once people restructure ownership, change residency, borrow against assets, challenge valuations or move capital into forms treated differently by the final law. Enforcement rules and any exit-tax provisions would therefore affect revenue alongside the headline rate. The Social Democrats have not adopted the Left and Green billionaire-tax proposal, despite arguing that the wealthiest should contribute more. Their 2026 campaign has emphasized other tax changes, including higher taxation for some high earners, a bank tax and a preparedness tax. Coalition negotiations could therefore alter the eventual policy even if the center-left wins power. Sweden is not choosing between one clearly drafted billionaire tax and no tax at all. Voters are looking at different levels of political commitment, with one proposal now relatively specific, another still dependent on an investigation, and a revenue estimate that cannot become solid until lawmakers settle the tax base, valuation rules, avoidance defenses, and treatment of people who leave. [/QUOTE]

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