Bank of Jamaica sees faster recovery from Hurricane Melissa

Jamaica just shaved a year off its hurricane recovery timeline, with the economy now expected to bounce back in two to three years instead of four.

Faster recovery than expected

• Richard Byles said agriculture rebounded quicker than anyone predicted.
• Electricity and telecom services also came back stronger than forecast.
• Real GDP is projected to contract between 1 and 3 percent this fiscal year.
• Growth should return to 1 to 3 percent for 2026/27.

Tourism took a hit from Melissa

• The current account balance is expected to worsen in the medium term.
• Hurricane damage to tourism and higher imports are the main drivers.
• Remittances and insurance payouts will help soften the blow.
• The balance swung from a 3 percent surplus last year to a narrower outlook now.

Reserves and banks are holding up

• International reserves hit a record US$6.8 billion on February 19.
• That’s roughly 155.8 percent of the adequacy benchmark.
• Non-performing loans inched up to 2.8 percent but stay well under the 10 percent limit.
• Private-sector credit grew 8 percent in 2025, slightly up from the previous year.