DeepSeek Impact Limited on US Tech Giants

A new Chinese AI firm called DeepSeek shook markets last week. Yet, according to a Bloomberg survey, most investors believe it poses little threat to America's top tech giants.

The survey of 260 people found that 88% expect minimal impact on major U.S. tech stocks in the coming weeks. This comes after DeepSeek's debut sparked a $784 billion drop in the S&P 500 last Monday.

Investors aren't rushing to sell their S&P 500 holdings. Instead, they point to Donald Trump's policies as the main source of market swings this year, with 59% of survey participants highlighting this concern.

The market's reliance on a few large tech firms has reached its highest point in 20 years. This concentration sparked warnings about how shifts in these mega-companies could affect broader markets.

Monday brought some dramatic changes. Nvidia lost $589 billion in market value - the largest single-day drop for any public company ever. But the broader market stayed steady. The S&P 500 fell just 1.5%, its biggest decline in only 10 trading days.

The index rose 0.5% Thursday, though gains slowed after Trump announced plans for 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting February 1. The market has largely recovered from Monday's losses.

Steve Sosnick from Interactive Brokers notes these top tech firms have built strong defenses around their businesses. But Monday's drop serves as a reminder that market leaders face constant challenges from new rivals.

Tech giants remain confident. Meta's CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, predicts major AI progress in 2025. Microsoft expects continued cloud computing growth despite struggles to build enough data centers for AI demands. Nvidia plans to report earnings on February 26.

Most survey participants - 63% - plan to keep their S&P 500 investments unchanged. Over half view the recent market reaction as excessive, questioning DeepSeek's claims about developing AI models at much lower costs than U.S. competitors.

The survey reveals U.S. value stocks as a popular alternative, with 39% favoring this option. Only 23% chose Treasury bonds, and 12% picked the U.S. dollar.

Value stocks, including financial, healthcare, and industrial companies, have gained attention. The Vanguard S&P 500 Value Index Fund ETF, which holds companies like Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble, slightly outperformed growth stocks in January.

Investors remain positive about the S&P 500's future. The survey's median forecast puts the index at 6,500 by year-end - a 7.1% increase from Thursday's close.
 

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