Bad news hit Lesotho on Thursday when people learned Trump put a 50% tax on their goods sent to America. Teboho Kobeli runs Afri-Expo Textiles with 2,000 workers. He told BBC he feels awful about maybe losing big parts of the US market because prices must go up. This small country became famous for using the African Growth and Opportunity Act. AGOA gives Africa free access to sell certain items to US buyers without extra fees.
AGOA started 25 years ago to help make Africa more industrial, create jobs, and fight poverty. The idea pushed trade instead of aid money. People debate how well it worked overall, but many say it created hundreds of thousands of jobs, mainly in the clothes industry. Trump never mentioned AGOA by name, but his actions make its future unclear. His first weeks brought chaos—especially for African nations. They wonder what matters more: the old AGOA rules or these new taxes between 10% and 50%.
South Africa exports metals and cars to America. Their government thinks AGOA just died. "These taxes cancel out all benefits sub-Saharan countries had under AGOA," South African ministers said Friday. Kenya sells clothes to the US. They think differently. Their foreign affairs leader Korir Sing'oei believes AGOA stays valid until September 2025 unless Congress kills it early. Kenya tried looking happy since their 10% tax hurts less than what Vietnam and Sri Lanka face.
Whatever happens right away, Trump's big taxes probably killed any hope for AGOA renewal. The law came during Clinton's time and feels like ancient history today. It needed renewal later this year. Since 2000, many African countries have sold things tax-free to America—clothes, cocoa products, wine, and even oil. Countries needed free markets, human rights, and real democracy to join. Last year, 32 nations qualified. Trade reached $47.5 billion both ways in 2023.
South Africa and Nigeria did most AGOA business because they have bigger economies. Yet Lesotho really used it well, sending lots of clothes to America for Walmart, GAP, and Old Navy. Life without AGOA brings huge problems. Mukhisa Kituyi, who ran UN trade programs before, says, "50% tax sounds like death for AGOA factories in Lesotho." The World Bank studied what happens if Lesotho loses AGOA suddenly - they found it hits 1% of GDP fast and hurts people badly.
Arguing about fairness means nothing against "disruptive populism and post-fact society," Kituyi says. He thinks Kenya might survive with 10% taxes if sellers and buyers share the cost without raising prices much. Having worked on trade deals himself, Kituyi saw the careful work making "stable, predictable rules-based trading." But he believes these deals became "hostage to the wishes of the dominant political group in America."
Michelle Gavin works at the Council for Foreign Relations. She told BBC that these tariff calculations "make no sense" to economists. She sees no clear plan from Trump yet. These choices will make America lose influence in Africa, she warns. China already trades more with Africa than anyone else—they might gain even more. "It looks like withdrawal, ignoring an entire huge region," Gavin says.
Trump has already cut back US aid programs, stopping both emergency help and health services. Gavin says America seems to be "destroying its influence with abandon." Many saw AGOA as important for US soft power against the growing Chinese and Russian presence in Africa. Both parties supported it before. Kituyi sees "a glimmer of hope" here. Democrat Senator Chris Coons proposed extending AGOA until 2041 last year.
Gavin doubts AGOA matters much during all these global problems caused by Trump's shocking policy changes. "A non-reciprocal trade agreement looks very tough for this Congress," she says. Republicans control Congress and mostly back what Trump wants. Even if it "makes good sense as policy," she thinks lawmakers have other priorities "as politics," even if Congress speaks up more. With Trump's taxes causing worldwide chaos, African needs seem less important to others.
If AGOA dies, Africa must look inside itself and actually create its promised continental free-trade area. African nations must also try harder to find new trade partners or grow their current markets beyond America.
AGOA started 25 years ago to help make Africa more industrial, create jobs, and fight poverty. The idea pushed trade instead of aid money. People debate how well it worked overall, but many say it created hundreds of thousands of jobs, mainly in the clothes industry. Trump never mentioned AGOA by name, but his actions make its future unclear. His first weeks brought chaos—especially for African nations. They wonder what matters more: the old AGOA rules or these new taxes between 10% and 50%.
South Africa exports metals and cars to America. Their government thinks AGOA just died. "These taxes cancel out all benefits sub-Saharan countries had under AGOA," South African ministers said Friday. Kenya sells clothes to the US. They think differently. Their foreign affairs leader Korir Sing'oei believes AGOA stays valid until September 2025 unless Congress kills it early. Kenya tried looking happy since their 10% tax hurts less than what Vietnam and Sri Lanka face.
Whatever happens right away, Trump's big taxes probably killed any hope for AGOA renewal. The law came during Clinton's time and feels like ancient history today. It needed renewal later this year. Since 2000, many African countries have sold things tax-free to America—clothes, cocoa products, wine, and even oil. Countries needed free markets, human rights, and real democracy to join. Last year, 32 nations qualified. Trade reached $47.5 billion both ways in 2023.
South Africa and Nigeria did most AGOA business because they have bigger economies. Yet Lesotho really used it well, sending lots of clothes to America for Walmart, GAP, and Old Navy. Life without AGOA brings huge problems. Mukhisa Kituyi, who ran UN trade programs before, says, "50% tax sounds like death for AGOA factories in Lesotho." The World Bank studied what happens if Lesotho loses AGOA suddenly - they found it hits 1% of GDP fast and hurts people badly.
Arguing about fairness means nothing against "disruptive populism and post-fact society," Kituyi says. He thinks Kenya might survive with 10% taxes if sellers and buyers share the cost without raising prices much. Having worked on trade deals himself, Kituyi saw the careful work making "stable, predictable rules-based trading." But he believes these deals became "hostage to the wishes of the dominant political group in America."
Michelle Gavin works at the Council for Foreign Relations. She told BBC that these tariff calculations "make no sense" to economists. She sees no clear plan from Trump yet. These choices will make America lose influence in Africa, she warns. China already trades more with Africa than anyone else—they might gain even more. "It looks like withdrawal, ignoring an entire huge region," Gavin says.
Trump has already cut back US aid programs, stopping both emergency help and health services. Gavin says America seems to be "destroying its influence with abandon." Many saw AGOA as important for US soft power against the growing Chinese and Russian presence in Africa. Both parties supported it before. Kituyi sees "a glimmer of hope" here. Democrat Senator Chris Coons proposed extending AGOA until 2041 last year.
Gavin doubts AGOA matters much during all these global problems caused by Trump's shocking policy changes. "A non-reciprocal trade agreement looks very tough for this Congress," she says. Republicans control Congress and mostly back what Trump wants. Even if it "makes good sense as policy," she thinks lawmakers have other priorities "as politics," even if Congress speaks up more. With Trump's taxes causing worldwide chaos, African needs seem less important to others.
If AGOA dies, Africa must look inside itself and actually create its promised continental free-trade area. African nations must also try harder to find new trade partners or grow their current markets beyond America.
