A former government economist is calling out the UK Treasury for some wildly optimistic math around non-dom tax reforms. Chris Walker from ChamberlainWalker says the government is betting on nearly 16 billion pounds showing up over three years from wealthy people bringing overseas money back to Britain, but the whole plan looks like wishful thinking. The forecast assumes around 130 billion in foreign assets will get repatriated through something called the Temporary Repatriation Facility, yet tax advisers are apparently telling their clients to stay away from it.
The analysis points out that way more non-doms are probably leaving than officials expected, and the ones bailing out might be the richest ones with the most overseas wealth. Walker says the projections could leave a massive hole in the budget if the money never materializes, and the government might not even realize how bad things are until 2027. The firm suggests tweaking the Finance Bill to give people better legal protection if they use the repatriation program, which might convince more wealthy folks to actually stick around and bring their cash onshore.
The analysis points out that way more non-doms are probably leaving than officials expected, and the ones bailing out might be the richest ones with the most overseas wealth. Walker says the projections could leave a massive hole in the budget if the money never materializes, and the government might not even realize how bad things are until 2027. The firm suggests tweaking the Finance Bill to give people better legal protection if they use the repatriation program, which might convince more wealthy folks to actually stick around and bring their cash onshore.
