A new study warns that aid reductions by the United States and European nations could result in more than 22 million preventable deaths by 2030, including 5.4 million children under five. The research, submitted to The Lancet Global Health and awaiting peer review, updates an earlier projection that focused solely on American cuts and represents the first time in three decades that France, Germany, Britain, and the United States have simultaneously slashed development assistance.
The analysis by researchers from Spain, Brazil, and Mozambique draws on historical data linking foreign aid to reduced mortality from HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Under a severe funding reduction scenario, excess deaths could range from 16.3 million to 29.3 million, depending on which programs face elimination and whether external crises occur. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has defended the policy shift, denying any resulting fatalities and criticizing what he termed an NGO industrial complex.
The Rockefeller Foundation, which funded the research alongside Spain's science ministry, called the findings an urgent global alarm about the human cost of inaction.
The analysis by researchers from Spain, Brazil, and Mozambique draws on historical data linking foreign aid to reduced mortality from HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Under a severe funding reduction scenario, excess deaths could range from 16.3 million to 29.3 million, depending on which programs face elimination and whether external crises occur. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has defended the policy shift, denying any resulting fatalities and criticizing what he termed an NGO industrial complex.
The Rockefeller Foundation, which funded the research alongside Spain's science ministry, called the findings an urgent global alarm about the human cost of inaction.
