Tennessee's Seventh District special election is getting weirdly interesting. Republicans usually dominate this area, which includes bits of Nashville, Clarksville, and Franklin. The GOP rep won by 22 points last cycle, matching Trump's margin. But Democrat Aftyn Behn is facing Republican Matt Van Epps in a race to replace Mark Green.
Special elections this whole year have seen big swings toward Democrats. That happened in New Jersey, Virginia, and other House races. Voter turnout patterns and shifts among former Trump supporters are driving it. Polling for these off-year votes is notoriously shaky.
The only major poll, from Emerson College, showed Van Epps up by just two points. Turnout is the huge variable, especially with voting happening after Thanksgiving. Analysts will watch this result closely for signs of a continuing backlash.
Special elections this whole year have seen big swings toward Democrats. That happened in New Jersey, Virginia, and other House races. Voter turnout patterns and shifts among former Trump supporters are driving it. Polling for these off-year votes is notoriously shaky.
The only major poll, from Emerson College, showed Van Epps up by just two points. Turnout is the huge variable, especially with voting happening after Thanksgiving. Analysts will watch this result closely for signs of a continuing backlash.
