The WTO expects global merchandise trade to shrink by 0.2% in 2025, a sharp reversal from the 2.9% growth seen in 2024. Recent tariff hikes since January forced the organization to downgrade what had been a positive forecast at the start of the year.
WTO head Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned that trade policy uncertainty threatens global growth, with vulnerable economies facing the worst impacts. She urged countries to exempt least developed nations from new tariffs during a press conference about the report. Services trade will also suffer despite not being directly subject to tariffs, with growth projected at 4% for 2025, about 1% less than previously expected.
Europe leads services trade growth with a forecast 5% increase, compared to North America slowing to just 1.6%. The WTO cautioned that if the United States reinstates "reciprocal tariffs," global goods trade might plunge even further by 1.5% next year. Regional differences appear stark - North American exports may plummet 12.6%, Asia expects modest 1.6% growth for both imports and exports, and Europe anticipates slight increases of 1% for exports and 1.9% for imports.
WTO head Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned that trade policy uncertainty threatens global growth, with vulnerable economies facing the worst impacts. She urged countries to exempt least developed nations from new tariffs during a press conference about the report. Services trade will also suffer despite not being directly subject to tariffs, with growth projected at 4% for 2025, about 1% less than previously expected.
Europe leads services trade growth with a forecast 5% increase, compared to North America slowing to just 1.6%. The WTO cautioned that if the United States reinstates "reciprocal tariffs," global goods trade might plunge even further by 1.5% next year. Regional differences appear stark - North American exports may plummet 12.6%, Asia expects modest 1.6% growth for both imports and exports, and Europe anticipates slight increases of 1% for exports and 1.9% for imports.
