Democrats are putting Senate seats in deep-red states back in play, with Kansas, Texas, Iowa, and Alaska drawing fresh attention. Polls point to close races in places where Republicans tend to win. Yet a strong showing in the polls does not mean those seats will change hands.
Kansas Senator Roger Marshall faces a hard fight for another term. Over in Texas, Ken Paxton has had to deal with a string of scandals. North Carolina looks close, while independent hopefuls in Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota are giving GOP candidates a real contest.
Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report sees a rare chance for Democrats. She thinks the mood of the nation has turned against Republicans, but that does not erase the deep support the GOP has built in these states.
Former Montana Senator Jon Tester has a similar view. He lost his seat after three terms and thinks his party has a rare shot at winning back ground. High gas prices, household bills, and anger at Trump have left some voters open to change.
The catch is that many of these states once sent Democrats to Washington. Nebraska, Montana, Iowa, both Dakotas, and Alaska all had Democratic senators in the past. As rural voters shifted right, those seats became much harder for the party to win.
Back in the Bill Clinton era, Democrats could still do well across the South. Louisiana and Arkansas had strong Democratic ties, while Republicans could win Senate races in states such as New York and Illinois. Those old voting patterns have since changed a great deal.
Seth Bodnar thinks Democrats helped create part of this problem. The Army veteran and former University of Montana president is running as an independent. His view is that the party spent years chasing city and suburban votes while paying less heed to rural workers.
That shift has also changed life inside the Senate. With fewer close races, many senators face more risk from rivals in their party than from the other side. Such contests can push GOP candidates right, and Democrats left.
Only Maine, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have one senator from each major party. That is the fewest split state pairs since voters began choosing senators through direct elections more than a century ago.
Trade tariffs and the Iran war have added to the cost pressures facing American homes. Democrats think public anger over those issues may help them reach voters who rarely back their party.
Mississippi is one place getting fresh cash. A group linked to Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer has spent over $1 million on ads there. State prosecutor Scott Colom hopes to beat Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith, despite the state having no Democratic Senate winner since 1982.
Schumer sees a rare set of open races and rejects the idea that a poor result would shut his party out of those states for years. Still, he admits the chance to compete across such a wide map is not common.
Adam Jentleson, a former Senate aide who founded the Searchlight Institute, thinks a few wins could help Democrats build lasting support. New senators would serve through the next president's first term, giving them time to gain the edge that comes with holding office.
His plan also looks at state governors. If Democrats gain those offices alongside Senate seats, he thinks both groups could help the party grow in areas where it has lost support.
Jentleson points to past gains under President George W. Bush, when Democrats took control of Congress and later added more seats. He hopes a similar run could put future GOP-held seats in Wisconsin and North Carolina at risk.
But the first test is still the ballot box. Strong polling, voter anger, and extra campaign cash have made these contests worth watching. Whether any of it leads to Democratic wins in long-held Republican states remains an open question.
Kansas Senator Roger Marshall faces a hard fight for another term. Over in Texas, Ken Paxton has had to deal with a string of scandals. North Carolina looks close, while independent hopefuls in Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota are giving GOP candidates a real contest.
Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report sees a rare chance for Democrats. She thinks the mood of the nation has turned against Republicans, but that does not erase the deep support the GOP has built in these states.
Former Montana Senator Jon Tester has a similar view. He lost his seat after three terms and thinks his party has a rare shot at winning back ground. High gas prices, household bills, and anger at Trump have left some voters open to change.
The catch is that many of these states once sent Democrats to Washington. Nebraska, Montana, Iowa, both Dakotas, and Alaska all had Democratic senators in the past. As rural voters shifted right, those seats became much harder for the party to win.
Back in the Bill Clinton era, Democrats could still do well across the South. Louisiana and Arkansas had strong Democratic ties, while Republicans could win Senate races in states such as New York and Illinois. Those old voting patterns have since changed a great deal.
Seth Bodnar thinks Democrats helped create part of this problem. The Army veteran and former University of Montana president is running as an independent. His view is that the party spent years chasing city and suburban votes while paying less heed to rural workers.
That shift has also changed life inside the Senate. With fewer close races, many senators face more risk from rivals in their party than from the other side. Such contests can push GOP candidates right, and Democrats left.
Only Maine, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have one senator from each major party. That is the fewest split state pairs since voters began choosing senators through direct elections more than a century ago.
Trade tariffs and the Iran war have added to the cost pressures facing American homes. Democrats think public anger over those issues may help them reach voters who rarely back their party.
Mississippi is one place getting fresh cash. A group linked to Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer has spent over $1 million on ads there. State prosecutor Scott Colom hopes to beat Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith, despite the state having no Democratic Senate winner since 1982.
Schumer sees a rare set of open races and rejects the idea that a poor result would shut his party out of those states for years. Still, he admits the chance to compete across such a wide map is not common.
Adam Jentleson, a former Senate aide who founded the Searchlight Institute, thinks a few wins could help Democrats build lasting support. New senators would serve through the next president's first term, giving them time to gain the edge that comes with holding office.
His plan also looks at state governors. If Democrats gain those offices alongside Senate seats, he thinks both groups could help the party grow in areas where it has lost support.
Jentleson points to past gains under President George W. Bush, when Democrats took control of Congress and later added more seats. He hopes a similar run could put future GOP-held seats in Wisconsin and North Carolina at risk.
But the first test is still the ballot box. Strong polling, voter anger, and extra campaign cash have made these contests worth watching. Whether any of it leads to Democratic wins in long-held Republican states remains an open question.
