Texas has passed 4 million early votes in the 2026 midterms, with turnout close to levels seen in a presidential race. Across the United States, tens of millions have voted, and polls show Democrats doing well in some key contests. But the final results remain uncertain.
Here's the catch with early ballots. Voter records can reveal who showed up, yet they cannot tell which candidate got the vote. Party loyalty can change, and no one knows how many people will head to polling sites once the main voting begins.
Texas has become a key state to watch. Democrat James Talarico is locked in a close Senate race with Republican Ken Paxton, with some surveys giving Talarico a slight edge. The early numbers matter here, as roughly 80% of Texans voted before the main polling day in the last presidential contest.
And there's a notable shift in the voter mix. People with a history of voting in Democratic primaries lead past Republican primary voters by about two percentage points among the ballots counted thus far. Texas does not require party registration, which makes those past voting records useful but far from certain.
Still, the gap isn't a shock. Democratic primary turnout beat the GOP's earlier in the election cycle. Around 25% of voters also lack a primary voting record, leaving a large group whose party choices remain unclear.
Hispanic-majority counties have seen strong voter activity as well. Their turnout has reached about 90% of the previous presidential election's pace. Across Texas, that figure sits near 82%. Such numbers stand out because midterm elections tend to draw far fewer people.
Elsewhere, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine have seen voter activity rise compared with the last midterm cycle. Maine is near four-fifths of its prior presidential turnout level. These states have drawn extra attention as their Senate races become more competitive.
Kansas stands out with a jump of roughly 50% in participation. Registered Democrats also account for a larger slice of early voters than at similar stages in the past two election cycles. Yet one county may be giving a skewed view of the state.
Johnson County, a Democratic-leaning area with the largest population in Kansas, has supplied almost half of the early ballots. In a normal statewide vote, it makes up closer to one-quarter of the total. That gap means the figures could shift as more counties report votes.
Georgia and North Carolina have another trend worth a look. Black voters make up a higher share of advance ballots than they did during the previous presidential and midterm contests. The pattern has held fairly steady across the early voting period.
Both states track race in their voter files, which helps analysts study turnout by group. They also tend to see most ballots submitted before the main election day. Polls have given Democratic Senate candidates wider leads there than in Texas.
Past voting estimates put Kamala Harris at about 90% support among Black voters in these two states during the last presidential contest. That history gives Democrats a reason to watch turnout closely, though it does not establish how the same group will vote this cycle.
For all the buzz around the figures, the main limit remains simple. High turnout, past party ties, and voter demographics can hint at trends, but none can reveal the final result before every ballot is counted.
Here's the catch with early ballots. Voter records can reveal who showed up, yet they cannot tell which candidate got the vote. Party loyalty can change, and no one knows how many people will head to polling sites once the main voting begins.
Texas has become a key state to watch. Democrat James Talarico is locked in a close Senate race with Republican Ken Paxton, with some surveys giving Talarico a slight edge. The early numbers matter here, as roughly 80% of Texans voted before the main polling day in the last presidential contest.
And there's a notable shift in the voter mix. People with a history of voting in Democratic primaries lead past Republican primary voters by about two percentage points among the ballots counted thus far. Texas does not require party registration, which makes those past voting records useful but far from certain.
Still, the gap isn't a shock. Democratic primary turnout beat the GOP's earlier in the election cycle. Around 25% of voters also lack a primary voting record, leaving a large group whose party choices remain unclear.
Hispanic-majority counties have seen strong voter activity as well. Their turnout has reached about 90% of the previous presidential election's pace. Across Texas, that figure sits near 82%. Such numbers stand out because midterm elections tend to draw far fewer people.
Elsewhere, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine have seen voter activity rise compared with the last midterm cycle. Maine is near four-fifths of its prior presidential turnout level. These states have drawn extra attention as their Senate races become more competitive.
Kansas stands out with a jump of roughly 50% in participation. Registered Democrats also account for a larger slice of early voters than at similar stages in the past two election cycles. Yet one county may be giving a skewed view of the state.
Johnson County, a Democratic-leaning area with the largest population in Kansas, has supplied almost half of the early ballots. In a normal statewide vote, it makes up closer to one-quarter of the total. That gap means the figures could shift as more counties report votes.
Georgia and North Carolina have another trend worth a look. Black voters make up a higher share of advance ballots than they did during the previous presidential and midterm contests. The pattern has held fairly steady across the early voting period.
Both states track race in their voter files, which helps analysts study turnout by group. They also tend to see most ballots submitted before the main election day. Polls have given Democratic Senate candidates wider leads there than in Texas.
Past voting estimates put Kamala Harris at about 90% support among Black voters in these two states during the last presidential contest. That history gives Democrats a reason to watch turnout closely, though it does not establish how the same group will vote this cycle.
For all the buzz around the figures, the main limit remains simple. High turnout, past party ties, and voter demographics can hint at trends, but none can reveal the final result before every ballot is counted.
