Mini LED laptop screens could lose about 75% of their yearly shipments in just two years, while OLED keeps gaining ground. Counterpoint Research expects a sharp change in the panel market, with a possible OLED MacBook Pro from Apple helping to drive the trend.
The numbers are pretty wild. Counterpoint sees Mini LED shipments dropping 38% in one year, then another 60% the next. That would leave the tech at roughly a quarter of its prior volume. OLED, meanwhile, could gain 50%, then 24%, for a total rise of 86% over the same span.
Here's where Apple comes in. A switch to OLED for the MacBook Pro could have a big effect on demand, though the firm has not made such a move official. High-end AI PCs may also play a part as brands seek new ways to make their laptops stand out.
Of course, the two screen types have their perks. Mini LED uses a backlight with lots of small zones to help boost contrast. It can offer high brightness and work well for tasks where the same image stays on-screen for long periods.
OLED takes a different path. Each pixel makes its own light, which means deep blacks and quick response times. It can also help make laptops thinner, while better production costs may give brands more reason to use it. Burn-in risk, screen life, and brightness still need care, though.
For buyers, this change could affect far more than the picture. A screen can shape a laptop's weight, battery life, HDR quality, and price. If fewer firms order premium Mini LED panels, that may limit the range of models that use them.
There's a catch with the data, however. Counterpoint has shared the expected growth and decline rates, but not the full shipment counts behind them. The figures also rely on how well factories can make OLED panels, how much they cost, and whether PC brands choose to adopt them.
Meanwhile, the whole notebook screen market may shrink by 3% in the near term. That makes the OLED gains stand out even more, though a slump in laptop sales or a shortage of parts could change the math.
Still, Mini LED is not set to vanish just because OLED is on the rise. Both have clear uses, and Apple's plans remain a guess for the time being. Actual product launches and sales data will show whether Counterpoint's forecast holds up.
The numbers are pretty wild. Counterpoint sees Mini LED shipments dropping 38% in one year, then another 60% the next. That would leave the tech at roughly a quarter of its prior volume. OLED, meanwhile, could gain 50%, then 24%, for a total rise of 86% over the same span.
Here's where Apple comes in. A switch to OLED for the MacBook Pro could have a big effect on demand, though the firm has not made such a move official. High-end AI PCs may also play a part as brands seek new ways to make their laptops stand out.
Of course, the two screen types have their perks. Mini LED uses a backlight with lots of small zones to help boost contrast. It can offer high brightness and work well for tasks where the same image stays on-screen for long periods.
OLED takes a different path. Each pixel makes its own light, which means deep blacks and quick response times. It can also help make laptops thinner, while better production costs may give brands more reason to use it. Burn-in risk, screen life, and brightness still need care, though.
For buyers, this change could affect far more than the picture. A screen can shape a laptop's weight, battery life, HDR quality, and price. If fewer firms order premium Mini LED panels, that may limit the range of models that use them.
There's a catch with the data, however. Counterpoint has shared the expected growth and decline rates, but not the full shipment counts behind them. The figures also rely on how well factories can make OLED panels, how much they cost, and whether PC brands choose to adopt them.
Meanwhile, the whole notebook screen market may shrink by 3% in the near term. That makes the OLED gains stand out even more, though a slump in laptop sales or a shortage of parts could change the math.
Still, Mini LED is not set to vanish just because OLED is on the rise. Both have clear uses, and Apple's plans remain a guess for the time being. Actual product launches and sales data will show whether Counterpoint's forecast holds up.
