Uganda's fertility rate has declined from approximately seven children per woman in 1991 and may fall below four by 2050, according to projections released by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics based on 2024 census information. The shift occurs most rapidly in cities and areas with stronger education systems, better contraceptive access and higher female workforce participation, while rural northern and eastern districts maintain larger family sizes. Life expectancy is expected to reach 78 years for women and 74 for men by mid-century, reflecting advances in health care and nutrition despite persistent regional disparities.
The demographic transition could generate economic benefits if authorities invest in education, employment and health services to support a growing working-age population. Kampala and Wakiso continue attracting young migrants seeking opportunities, straining urban infrastructure as rural areas lose labor and economic vitality. Researchers employed post-enumeration survey corrections and Bayesian modeling techniques to account for a 4.3 percent undercount in census data.
The demographic transition could generate economic benefits if authorities invest in education, employment and health services to support a growing working-age population. Kampala and Wakiso continue attracting young migrants seeking opportunities, straining urban infrastructure as rural areas lose labor and economic vitality. Researchers employed post-enumeration survey corrections and Bayesian modeling techniques to account for a 4.3 percent undercount in census data.
