Ties between India and Bangladesh have gone seriously downhill since last year. A recent report from an international group points to the ousting of former leader Sheikh Hasina as the main trigger. India had strongly backed its government for fifteen years, a stance that built up significant public resentment in Bangladesh. Since giving her refuge after she fled, the two neighbors have traded tough talk, put up trade barriers, and had run-ins at the border.
With a national election coming up in Bangladesh, the analysis sees a chance to reset things afterward. It suggests India should make friendly moves post-vote and stop betting everything on one political party. For their part, Bangladeshi parties are advised to cool it with the anti-India campaign rhetoric. The report notes India is basically waiting out the current caretaker government, expecting to deal with an elected one. The main opposition party, which has had rocky relations with New Delhi in the past, is now seen as the likely winner.
The so-called golden era under Hasina saw settled borders and more trade, but many in Bangladesh felt India got the better deal by supporting an authoritarian rule. India's choice to shelter her worsened that anger. The worry now is that politics in both countries could make things worse. Election tactics in Bangladesh and immigration politics in India could spark more tension. Issues like a shared water treaty and upcoming state elections in India are potential flashpoints that might lead to protests or border violence instead of full war.
The advice for India is to engage with a wider range of Bangladeshi political forces and build economic ties that can survive government changes. Suggested steps include lifting recent visa limits. Bangladesh's next government is urged to pursue a balanced foreign policy, control extremism, and address smuggling and migration concerns to build a more stable relationship.
With a national election coming up in Bangladesh, the analysis sees a chance to reset things afterward. It suggests India should make friendly moves post-vote and stop betting everything on one political party. For their part, Bangladeshi parties are advised to cool it with the anti-India campaign rhetoric. The report notes India is basically waiting out the current caretaker government, expecting to deal with an elected one. The main opposition party, which has had rocky relations with New Delhi in the past, is now seen as the likely winner.
The so-called golden era under Hasina saw settled borders and more trade, but many in Bangladesh felt India got the better deal by supporting an authoritarian rule. India's choice to shelter her worsened that anger. The worry now is that politics in both countries could make things worse. Election tactics in Bangladesh and immigration politics in India could spark more tension. Issues like a shared water treaty and upcoming state elections in India are potential flashpoints that might lead to protests or border violence instead of full war.
The advice for India is to engage with a wider range of Bangladeshi political forces and build economic ties that can survive government changes. Suggested steps include lifting recent visa limits. Bangladesh's next government is urged to pursue a balanced foreign policy, control extremism, and address smuggling and migration concerns to build a more stable relationship.
