Zimbabwe faces a leadership crisis as President Mnangagwa appears ready to stay beyond his allowed time. The rules clearly say that nobody can serve more than two terms as president, but many believe he plans to break these limits after 2028. This has angered not just his opponents but also members of his ZANU-PF party. His deputy, Chiwenga expected to become president next based on promises made when they pushed out former leader Mugabe together back in 2017.
War veterans who fought for independence form a powerful group backing Chiwenga against Mnangagwa. Their spokesman, Blessed Geza, calls for people to rise up on March 31. Geza once served as both a lawmaker and party official before they kicked him out. He went into hiding because he feared arrest. The government arrested reporter Blessed Mhlanga just for sharing Geza's interviews on TV. They refused to let Mhlanga out of jail twice already.
Human rights groups around the world blame Zimbabwe for attacking free speech. The trouble started last August when ZANU-PF voted to extend Mnangagwa's leadership until 2030 and change the country's basic laws. Mnangagwa claims he respects the rules and will step down when required. Almost nobody believes him since he never canceled the party decision. Giving up power would also mean losing access to the money he and his friends made through corrupt deals.
This corruption makes his enemies most angry. Geza recently listed businesses tied to Mnangagwa that became rich from government contracts. The constitution creates three big roadblocks against third terms. It bans serving more than twice, requires public votes for major changes, and prevents current presidents from benefiting from rule changes. These legal barriers make extending his stay very hard. He would need public approval when most people already dislike him.
Some think Mnangagwa might try to extend both his term and current lawmakers' terms. This still requires changing the basic laws. His supporters believe they can make these changes without asking citizens to vote. Nobody knows how serious these problems really are or whether the planned March uprising will happen. The military removed Mugabe in 2017 under Chiwenga's command, causing much debate about where military loyalties stand today.
Recent reports suggest that Chiwenga still has strong support among military officers. Mnangagwa keeps the loyalty of the Defense Force Chief General Sibanda. Zimbabwe expert Ibbo Mandaza believes the system cannot hold together much longer. Another expert, Brian Raftopoulos, sees real danger ahead. He points to growing splits inside the party, military, and security teams because Chiwenga resents broken promises about who takes power next.
Yet, experts doubt we will see massive street protests like those in 2017. Economic hardship under Mnangagwa destroyed public trust in government. Political expert David Moore believes few regular citizens would join protests. He doubts the main opposition group would participate either. Their involvement might signal that they gave up organizing regular people and instead chose to work with one side of the ruling party against another.
Civil society groups also lack strength. Even if violent protests happen inside ZANU-PF, Mnangagwa can probably keep control. He recently moved a general who supported Chiwenga to a much less important job as Sports Minister. He keeps removing people he cannot trust. His plan seems to involve either containing Chiwenga or pushing him completely out of power. Global politics favor Mnangagwa if he decides to crack down on protests. Neither African nor Western nations seem likely to intervene.
War veterans who fought for independence form a powerful group backing Chiwenga against Mnangagwa. Their spokesman, Blessed Geza, calls for people to rise up on March 31. Geza once served as both a lawmaker and party official before they kicked him out. He went into hiding because he feared arrest. The government arrested reporter Blessed Mhlanga just for sharing Geza's interviews on TV. They refused to let Mhlanga out of jail twice already.
Human rights groups around the world blame Zimbabwe for attacking free speech. The trouble started last August when ZANU-PF voted to extend Mnangagwa's leadership until 2030 and change the country's basic laws. Mnangagwa claims he respects the rules and will step down when required. Almost nobody believes him since he never canceled the party decision. Giving up power would also mean losing access to the money he and his friends made through corrupt deals.
This corruption makes his enemies most angry. Geza recently listed businesses tied to Mnangagwa that became rich from government contracts. The constitution creates three big roadblocks against third terms. It bans serving more than twice, requires public votes for major changes, and prevents current presidents from benefiting from rule changes. These legal barriers make extending his stay very hard. He would need public approval when most people already dislike him.
Some think Mnangagwa might try to extend both his term and current lawmakers' terms. This still requires changing the basic laws. His supporters believe they can make these changes without asking citizens to vote. Nobody knows how serious these problems really are or whether the planned March uprising will happen. The military removed Mugabe in 2017 under Chiwenga's command, causing much debate about where military loyalties stand today.
Recent reports suggest that Chiwenga still has strong support among military officers. Mnangagwa keeps the loyalty of the Defense Force Chief General Sibanda. Zimbabwe expert Ibbo Mandaza believes the system cannot hold together much longer. Another expert, Brian Raftopoulos, sees real danger ahead. He points to growing splits inside the party, military, and security teams because Chiwenga resents broken promises about who takes power next.
Yet, experts doubt we will see massive street protests like those in 2017. Economic hardship under Mnangagwa destroyed public trust in government. Political expert David Moore believes few regular citizens would join protests. He doubts the main opposition group would participate either. Their involvement might signal that they gave up organizing regular people and instead chose to work with one side of the ruling party against another.
Civil society groups also lack strength. Even if violent protests happen inside ZANU-PF, Mnangagwa can probably keep control. He recently moved a general who supported Chiwenga to a much less important job as Sports Minister. He keeps removing people he cannot trust. His plan seems to involve either containing Chiwenga or pushing him completely out of power. Global politics favor Mnangagwa if he decides to crack down on protests. Neither African nor Western nations seem likely to intervene.
