Zimbabwe faces growing trouble as President Mnangagwa seems to want more power after his second term ends in 2028. The country has clear laws against serving more than twice, yet many believe he plans to break these rules. This has sparked anger from various groups, including some inside his ruling ZANU-PF party. His Vice President, Chiwenga, feels betrayed since Mnangagwa promised him the top job when they teamed up to remove former leader, Mugabe, in 2017.
War veterans who support Chiwenga have become very vocal critics. Their leader, Blessed Geza, plans to start protests against Mnangagwa on March 31. The government has cracked down hard, arresting journalist Blessed Mhlanga for sharing Geza's messages and denying him bail twice. Many others have gone into hiding as the situation heated up. Human rights groups have demanded Mhlanga be freed, saying press freedom faces serious threats.
The conflict started last August when the ruling party passed a resolution to extend Mnangagwa's leadership past 2028 until 2030, suggesting changes to the national constitution. Though Mnangagwa claims he respects the law and will step down, few trust him since he hasn't canceled the resolution. Many suspect he wants to protect the massive wealth he and his allies have gathered through corrupt deals. Geza recently listed business friends of Mnangagwa who he claims got rich from shady government contracts.
Legal experts point out three major barriers that block anyone from seeking a third term under Zimbabwe law. These include the two-term limit, the need for a national vote on constitutional changes, and rules preventing current officials from benefiting from amendments they make. Political experts think Mnangagwa might try to extend not just his term but also current lawmakers' terms without holding the required national vote.
Questions swirl about where military loyalty lies since they played a key role in removing Mugabe. Some sources say Chiwenga still has strong backing in the armed forces, but Mnangagwa keeps the support of Defense Force Chief General Sibanda. Expert Ibbo Mandaza suggests that current tensions show the government can barely hold itself together. Another analyst, Brian Raftopoulos, sees real danger but doubts people would flood the streets as they did in 2017.
The main opposition party has weakened greatly, making large public protests less likely. Mnangagwa has already started moving Chiwenga supporters out of powerful positions, such as demoting Lieutenant General Sanyatwe to Sports Minister. Most experts believe Mnangagwa will either contain Chiwenga or push him out completely. They expect unrest but doubt a successful coup will happen.
International politics may help Mnangagwa if he decides to crush any protests. The rise of right-wing governments worldwide has given cover to authoritarian leaders. Zimbabwe no longer faces scrutiny from European nations, reducing pressure from abroad. The Southern African Development Community, which Mnangagwa currently chairs, seems busy with other regional issues like problems in Congo. Neither African organization took action after the 2017 takeover despite rules against coups.
No one wants another military takeover that simply replaces one corrupt faction with another. Yet letting Mnangagwa violently stop protests with no global response seems equally bad. Regional leaders should step in before the situation gets worse. The Zimbabwean people deserve better than endless power struggles between different parts of the same ruling elite.
War veterans who support Chiwenga have become very vocal critics. Their leader, Blessed Geza, plans to start protests against Mnangagwa on March 31. The government has cracked down hard, arresting journalist Blessed Mhlanga for sharing Geza's messages and denying him bail twice. Many others have gone into hiding as the situation heated up. Human rights groups have demanded Mhlanga be freed, saying press freedom faces serious threats.
The conflict started last August when the ruling party passed a resolution to extend Mnangagwa's leadership past 2028 until 2030, suggesting changes to the national constitution. Though Mnangagwa claims he respects the law and will step down, few trust him since he hasn't canceled the resolution. Many suspect he wants to protect the massive wealth he and his allies have gathered through corrupt deals. Geza recently listed business friends of Mnangagwa who he claims got rich from shady government contracts.
Legal experts point out three major barriers that block anyone from seeking a third term under Zimbabwe law. These include the two-term limit, the need for a national vote on constitutional changes, and rules preventing current officials from benefiting from amendments they make. Political experts think Mnangagwa might try to extend not just his term but also current lawmakers' terms without holding the required national vote.
Questions swirl about where military loyalty lies since they played a key role in removing Mugabe. Some sources say Chiwenga still has strong backing in the armed forces, but Mnangagwa keeps the support of Defense Force Chief General Sibanda. Expert Ibbo Mandaza suggests that current tensions show the government can barely hold itself together. Another analyst, Brian Raftopoulos, sees real danger but doubts people would flood the streets as they did in 2017.
The main opposition party has weakened greatly, making large public protests less likely. Mnangagwa has already started moving Chiwenga supporters out of powerful positions, such as demoting Lieutenant General Sanyatwe to Sports Minister. Most experts believe Mnangagwa will either contain Chiwenga or push him out completely. They expect unrest but doubt a successful coup will happen.
International politics may help Mnangagwa if he decides to crush any protests. The rise of right-wing governments worldwide has given cover to authoritarian leaders. Zimbabwe no longer faces scrutiny from European nations, reducing pressure from abroad. The Southern African Development Community, which Mnangagwa currently chairs, seems busy with other regional issues like problems in Congo. Neither African organization took action after the 2017 takeover despite rules against coups.
No one wants another military takeover that simply replaces one corrupt faction with another. Yet letting Mnangagwa violently stop protests with no global response seems equally bad. Regional leaders should step in before the situation gets worse. The Zimbabwean people deserve better than endless power struggles between different parts of the same ruling elite.
