Zimbabwe might see another change like what happened in November 2017. President Mnangagwa wants to stay powerful past 2028 when his second term ends. This makes many people mad, including war veterans who support Vice-President Chiwenga. These veterans plan to rise against Mnangagwa on March 31.
The Zimbabwe constitution clearly states that presidents cannot serve more than two terms. Yet, Mnangagwa seems ready to break this rule. Critics come from everywhere—regular citizens, opposition parties, and even members of his ruling ZANU-PF party. Chiwenga was expected to become president next because Mnangagwa promised him the job when they worked together to push out former president Robert Mugabe.
War veteran leader Blessed 'Bombshell' Runesu Geza heads the group planning the March 31 action. He used to belong to Parliament and ZANU-PF's Central Committee until they kicked him out. Geza has gone into hiding as the government arrests anyone sharing his messages. Journalist Blessed Mhlanga sits in jail without bail just for broadcasting Geza's interviews on TV.
Human rights groups have demanded Mhlanga's release. They say Zimbabwe threatens basic freedoms of speech and press. The trouble began last August when ZANU-PF passed Resolution 1, stating Mnangagwa should lead past 2028 until 2030. They even suggested changing the national constitution for this purpose.
Mnangagwa claims he respects the constitution and will step down, but nobody believes him. He never canceled Resolution 1. Leaving office means he must give up all the money he and his friends made through corrupt deals. Geza recently listed business partners who became rich through government contracts given by Mnangagwa.
The constitution has three strong rules against third terms. It limits presidents to two terms, requires national votes for changes, and prevents current leaders from benefiting from amendments. These create big legal hurdles for Mnangagwa. Political barriers exist as well since any national vote might turn into a referendum about his leadership, which he would likely lose.
Some believe Mnangagwa might try to extend both his term and current lawmakers' terms without proper voting. Military support has remained crucial since the army removed Mugabe in 2017. People debate whether Chiwenga still has enough military loyalty to challenge Mnangagwa, who keeps the support of Defence Force Chief General Philip Sibanda.
Expert Ibbo Mandaza says the situation cannot stay stable much longer. University expert Brian Raftopoulos sees real danger ahead as resentment grows between political factions, affecting both ZANU-PF and security forces. However, he doubts we'll see massive street protests like those in 2017. The main opposition party appears weakened, and civil society groups lack power.
Mnangagwa keeps control by moving Chiwenga supporters to less important jobs. One example shows Lieutenant General Anselem Sanyatwe reassigned from the army to sports minister - a major demotion. Experts think Mnangagwa will continue isolating Chiwenga and his allies. Small protests might happen, perhaps even attempts to remove the president, but a complete coup seems less likely.
International factors favor Mnangagwa if he decides to crush protests. Global shifts toward right-wing politics help authoritarian leaders justify harsh actions. Zimbabwe no longer faces serious pressure from Western nations about democracy issues. Regional groups like SADC remain busy with other problems, such as conflicts in Congo. These groups did nothing when Mugabe lost power in 2017, despite rules requiring action after coups.
No one wants another military takeover that simply replaces one corrupt group with another. Yet, watching Mnangagwa violently stop protests without international response seems equally bad. The region should step in before things worsen.
The Zimbabwe constitution clearly states that presidents cannot serve more than two terms. Yet, Mnangagwa seems ready to break this rule. Critics come from everywhere—regular citizens, opposition parties, and even members of his ruling ZANU-PF party. Chiwenga was expected to become president next because Mnangagwa promised him the job when they worked together to push out former president Robert Mugabe.
War veteran leader Blessed 'Bombshell' Runesu Geza heads the group planning the March 31 action. He used to belong to Parliament and ZANU-PF's Central Committee until they kicked him out. Geza has gone into hiding as the government arrests anyone sharing his messages. Journalist Blessed Mhlanga sits in jail without bail just for broadcasting Geza's interviews on TV.
Human rights groups have demanded Mhlanga's release. They say Zimbabwe threatens basic freedoms of speech and press. The trouble began last August when ZANU-PF passed Resolution 1, stating Mnangagwa should lead past 2028 until 2030. They even suggested changing the national constitution for this purpose.
Mnangagwa claims he respects the constitution and will step down, but nobody believes him. He never canceled Resolution 1. Leaving office means he must give up all the money he and his friends made through corrupt deals. Geza recently listed business partners who became rich through government contracts given by Mnangagwa.
The constitution has three strong rules against third terms. It limits presidents to two terms, requires national votes for changes, and prevents current leaders from benefiting from amendments. These create big legal hurdles for Mnangagwa. Political barriers exist as well since any national vote might turn into a referendum about his leadership, which he would likely lose.
Some believe Mnangagwa might try to extend both his term and current lawmakers' terms without proper voting. Military support has remained crucial since the army removed Mugabe in 2017. People debate whether Chiwenga still has enough military loyalty to challenge Mnangagwa, who keeps the support of Defence Force Chief General Philip Sibanda.
Expert Ibbo Mandaza says the situation cannot stay stable much longer. University expert Brian Raftopoulos sees real danger ahead as resentment grows between political factions, affecting both ZANU-PF and security forces. However, he doubts we'll see massive street protests like those in 2017. The main opposition party appears weakened, and civil society groups lack power.
Mnangagwa keeps control by moving Chiwenga supporters to less important jobs. One example shows Lieutenant General Anselem Sanyatwe reassigned from the army to sports minister - a major demotion. Experts think Mnangagwa will continue isolating Chiwenga and his allies. Small protests might happen, perhaps even attempts to remove the president, but a complete coup seems less likely.
International factors favor Mnangagwa if he decides to crush protests. Global shifts toward right-wing politics help authoritarian leaders justify harsh actions. Zimbabwe no longer faces serious pressure from Western nations about democracy issues. Regional groups like SADC remain busy with other problems, such as conflicts in Congo. These groups did nothing when Mugabe lost power in 2017, despite rules requiring action after coups.
No one wants another military takeover that simply replaces one corrupt group with another. Yet, watching Mnangagwa violently stop protests without international response seems equally bad. The region should step in before things worsen.
